Shocks & Surprises

Coldwater's Shocks & Surprises service responds to the belief that economics is both local and global and that even the closest examination of local phenomena will yield only a partial understanding if you don't understand the global context in which they occur.  That suggests having to keep an eye on a vast range of economic indicators from the world's major economies.  But that alone would take more time than most institutional investors can reasonably carve out from their day. 

That's where the Shocks & Surprises services comes in.  Coldwater tracks approximately 450 economic indicators from the world's major economies every month (in Asia, Europe and N America) with the sole purpose of identifying those which arrive more than a standard deviation away from where they should be according to consensus (where available) or from measured trends.  

For those pieces of data which do 'shock' or 'surprise', Coldwater goes on to identify the moving parts which are driving the changes. 

Clients are alerted three times a day (for Asia, Europe and N America) with the results, in emails which initially allow the information to be taken in at a glance, and followed up, if required, by no more than a couple of minutes of attention.  In addition, clients are alerted to the likely trajectory of the following day's data. 

This is neither a news service nor analytical research: rather it is a utility designed to allow clients to identify only those things which might deserve their further attention.

This intense data-tracking also forms the basis for the Coldwater Indexes of shocks and surprises. 

Clients currently include asset managers of all types, including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, investment funds, mutual funds, hedge funds and family offices.  

To trial the service, please email